6ª feira, 07/02, 15h. IFUSP - Ed. Basílio Jafet - Sala 105
Nico Wunderling - PIK, Potsdam, Germany
There exists a range of subsystems in the climate system exhibiting threshold behavior which could be triggered under global warming within this century resulting in severe consequences for biosphere and human societies. Among these tipping elements are the continental ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica, circulation patterns and biosphere components such as the Amazon rainforest. But oftentimes, the individual tipping elements are not isolated systems, but interact on a larger scale via complex dynamics. Here I will introduce the modelling framework “pycascades” which simulates tipping elements on complex networks as linearly coupled systems of ordinary differential equations. In this work in progress talk, I apply our framework to the Amazon rainforest and examine regions where tipping and domino effects are important. With that the aim is to explore the vulnerability landscape of the Amazon rainforest with respect to recent, potentially climate change induced, droughts.
