Acesso:
► Via Zoom (para participação ao vivo): https://zoom.us/j/99040780268
► Ou You Tube (acima ou em bit.ly/canalifusp)
Resumo:
- Palestra ministrada em inglês | Colloquium will be held in English -
The Earth system is a very complex and dynamical one basing on various feedbacks. This makes predictions and risk analysis even of very strong (sometime extreme) events as floods, landslides, heatwaves, earthquakes etc. a challenging task. After introducing physical models for weather forecast already in 1922 by Richardson, a strong problem has been the understanding of basic physical mechanisms and exploring anthropogenic influences on climate. In 2021 Hasselmann and Manabe got the Physics Nobel Price for their pioneering works on this. I will shortly review their main seminal contributions.
Next, I will introduce a recently developed approach via complex networks mainly to analyze strong climate events. This leads to an inverse problem: Is there a backbone-like structure underlying the climate system? To tret this problem, we have proposed a method to reconstruct and analyze a complex network from data. This approach enables us to uncover relations to global and regional circulation patterns in oceans and atmosphere, which leads to construct substantially better predictions, in particular for the onset of the Indian Summer Monsoon and extreme events.
Sobre o palestrante: Jürgen Kurths obteve o seu PhD na Academy of Sciences (Berlin) em 1983. É conselheiro sênior do Institute for Climate Impact Research e professor da Humboldt University (Berlin). É especialista em sistemas complexos com aplicação à Física da Terra, cérebro humano e outros sistemas caracterizados por alto grau de complexidade e não linearidade.
Palavras-chaves: sistemas complexos, física do clima, prêmio nobel de física
